Björn Birnir

[:is]Math colloquium

Fyrirlesari: Björn Birnir, Center for Complex and Nonlinear Science at the University of California at Santa Barbara (UCSB)

Titill: When can we expect the Greenland glacier to melt?

Staðsetning: VR-II,V-258
Tími: Þriðjudag 27.ágúst kl. 11:00

Ágrip:

It was suggested by Rose (2005) that because of the migratory and responsive nature of the capelin, a small pelagic fish that is key to the ecology and fisheries of the North Atlantic, it can be viewed as the „canary in the coalmine“ to detect signals of environmental changes in the Arctic Ocean. In this talk we will combine analysis of data and extensive simulations of the migrations of the capelin and its physiology to analyze the changes in the ocean environment taking place over the last half-century. The environmental data for the last thirty year is obtained from a database called Copernicus, constructed by the European Union. Our goals will be to understand and predict the migrations of the capelin and its interactions with the ocean environment. We will explain how these have changed over time and how they are likely to change in the future. Then we will explain how our simulations can be compared with data, with the aim of finding out the rate of the temperature changes in the Arctic Ocean and when thresholds for major disruptions in Arctic environments are likely to be reached. The recent changes in the spawning routes of the capelin lead to a startling prediction.[:en]

Speaker: Björn Birnir, Center for Complex and Nonlinear Science at the University of California at Santa Barbara (UCSB)

Title: When can we expect the Greenland glacier to melt?

Room: VR-II,V-258
Time: Tuesday 27nd August, 11:00hrs

Abstract:

It was suggested by Rose (2005) that because of the migratory and responsive nature of the capelin, a small pelagic fish that is key to the ecology and fisheries of the North Atlantic, it can be viewed as the „canary in the coalmine“ to detect signals of environmental changes in the Arctic Ocean. In this talk we will combine analysis of data and extensive simulations of the migrations of the capelin and its physiology to analyze the changes in the ocean environment taking place over the last half-century. The environmental data for the last thirty year is obtained from a database called Copernicus, constructed by the European Union. Our goals will be to understand and predict the migrations of the capelin and its interactions with the ocean environment. We will explain how these have changed over time and how they are likely to change in the future. Then we will explain how our simulations can be compared with data, with the aim of finding out the rate of the temperature changes in the Arctic Ocean and when thresholds for major disruptions in Arctic environments are likely to be reached. The recent changes in the spawning routes of the capelin lead to a startling prediction.[:]